Property market regulation and control policy is becoming more normalized, and the “price of ice” has become increasingly

Under the situation in which control policies continue to develop, the real estate industry is entering a period of overall adjustment. Not only has the trading volume of the property market slumped, but also the downward trend in house prices has become more pronounced. Real estate investment and new start-up growth have also slowed down significantly.

It is expected that the purchase restriction policy will not be relaxed in the next year, and the normalized control measures such as optimizing the supply structure of the housing market and the reform of real estate tax pilots may be implemented.

Experts interviewed by the "Economic Information Daily" reporter believe that in the first half of next year, as the control policy will still be more stringent, demand is still suppressed, fine-tuning of monetary policy will also be difficult to ease the pressure on the real estate industry quickly, and the new project will be launched in the past two years. Into the market, to promote further increase in inventory and housing prices down.

Loose house prices "frozen ice" gradually melted down the price surge In the beginning of the "State eight", purchase restrictions, limited loans and limit prices and other measures, "repeatedly adjusted repeatedly," the property market began to accelerate cooling. Especially after entering the second half of the year, the declining market has caused developer sales to slow down and inventory levels have been rising month by month. According to the Central Plains monitoring data, as of November, the total inventory of the top ten benchmarking companies increased by about 60% compared with the previous six months.

The continued sluggish volume of transactions has also made prices “frozen” to begin to melt. October was seen as the watershed of the property market, and the first half of the year saw a negative growth in the average price-to-announcement index for 70 large and medium-sized cities. In November, the rate of housing prices accelerated, and 70 percent of the 70 large and medium-sized cities saw a drop in the price of new commercial housing. Due to the year-end performance review, the recent housing price cuts of various housing enterprises are increasing, and the "price cut tide" has spread to the second and third-tier cities.

In cities such as Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, where there have been many recent price cuts, the “domino” effect of falling house prices has already appeared. At the same time, in cities such as Hefei, Qingdao and Dalian that have not seen significant price cuts in the early stages, the “hard ice” prices have also begun to melt.

Centaline Group Research Center believes that, with the impending off-season sales of New Year's Day and the Lunar New Year, under the environment in which the purchase-and-limit credit limit policy is unlikely to relax in the short term, the annual closing of all housing enterprises will be chilly and bleak.

While developers frequently make large profits at a large discount, the price of second-hand houses has also accelerated. According to 21st century real estate prices monitoring of typical districts in Beijing shows that house prices have been declining for the third consecutive month since September, and the decline rate has gradually increased. Among them, the average price of houses in November fell by 3.9%. Second, the scope of price cuts has been further expanded, and the bargaining space has been further expanded. Of the 99 monitored plates, 82% of the 81 plates in the regional trading prices are in the downward channel, and these areas have gradually spread from the peripheral areas to the central area. Han Hailong, deputy general manager of real estate in Beijing in the 21st century, said that with the recognition of the decline in neighboring new homes, it is expected that more homeowners will follow the queue to join the initiative.

The Central Plains Quotation Weekly Index predicts that by the end of the year, all parties involved in the market are looking forward to the market trend becoming clear after the end of the year, resulting in the current property market stagnating.

Zhang Yue, chief analyst of Chain Home Real Estate, believes that as the year-end approaches are approaching, the difficulty of new-entry projects is gradually increasing. On the one hand, the surge in price cuts in the new housing market since October has caused some purchases to be digested. On the other hand, the direction of the policy will be clear next year, and the regulation will continue to be implemented. Buyers' price cuts are expected to deepen.

After the real estate industry fell into the “adjustment of volume and price” during the overall adjustment period, the real estate industry entered a period of full adjustment. In November, the national real estate development climate index fell by 0.4 percentage points from October, down 3.33 percentage points from the same period of last year, reaching a record low in nearly 27 months.

According to data from the Central China Real Estate Research Yearbook 2011, as of November 2011, the performance of the national real estate industry as a whole was not as good as in the same period of 2010, and indicators such as real estate investment and new start-up growth slowed down significantly. From January to November 2011, the total area of ​​newly-built commercial housing in China was 1.35 billion square meters, an increase of 17.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 28.6 percentage points compared with the same period of 2010. The total investment in the development of commercial residential buildings across the country was 3,896.64 billion yuan, an increase of 32.80%, which was a 1.4 percentage point decrease from the same period in 2010.

Yang Hongxu, Director of the Comprehensive Research Department of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said in an interview with the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that in the first 11 months, investment in real estate development nationwide increased 29.9% year-on-year, and is expected to be around 29% for the whole year. This increase has been since 2010. After reaching the top of the month, it continued to fall slightly. In the first 11 months of this year, the area of ​​new housing development for real estate developers across the country increased by 20.5% year-on-year, and is expected to be around 19% for the full year. This increase has continued to decline since reaching its peak in May 2010. It has stabilized in March this year and has recently fallen again. Although the development investment and new start-up volume are obviously better than the commercial housing market, it is mainly driven by the 10 million sets of affordable housing construction this year.

Yang Hongxu expects that the national housing climate index will continue to decline next year, and the bottom may be ascertained around the second quarter. The time of this round of the downward cycle will significantly exceed the previous round. It is expected that before the end of next year, it is less likely that it will rise above 100 again.

According to statistics from the China Index Institute, from January to November, the average monthly transaction area of ​​the first and second line representative cities was 640,000 square meters and 570,000 square meters respectively, down 15% and 7% year-on-year respectively; and the third-line representative city was 360,000 square meters. It was basically the same as last year.

Affected by the market trend, the pace of development of developers has also slowed down. In the first 11 months of 2011, the cumulative contracted sales area of ​​the ten benchmark housing enterprises monitored by the Central Plains was approximately 44.77 million square meters, an increase of 16% over the same period of last year. This growth rate has dropped by 3 percentage points over the entire year of 2010.

At the same time, the land market transactions in various places have fallen into deep downturns, and there have been continuous auctions, and the strategies adopted by housing enterprises have become more cautious than in previous years. Centaline Property Data shows that as of November, the total number of flow-through land parcels in 35 cities reached 117, up 432% from 22 in October, and the flow area has reached 15.8 million square meters.

Policy Normalization Regulates the "Road Map" Clearly, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly pointed out that we must adhere to the real estate control policy unwaveringly, promote the reasonable return of housing prices, accelerate the construction of ordinary commercial housing, expand effective supply, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

Jiang Weixin, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, also made it clear at the National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Development that next year he will continue to insist on real estate regulation and control, and he must focus on accelerating the construction of low-to-medium-price, medium and small-sized ordinary commodity housing. Accelerate the construction of individual housing information systems, pay attention to the construction of a long-term mechanism for the real estate market, and promote a reasonable return of housing prices.

Jiang Weixin also pointed out that next year will continue to promote the construction of affordable housing projects and strengthen management. Take effective measures to ensure the implementation of funds and land. Strictly put planning, building materials supply, construction and completion inspections to ensure project quality.

At present, it is widely expected in the industry that the trial expansion of property tax will gradually come to an end. The China Index Academy's 2011 Market Summary and 2012 Trends Outlook report believes that the scope of real estate tax pilots may be expanded to lay the foundation for the establishment of a medium- and long-term system.

The report predicts that the real estate tax pilot reform scope will be further expanded in 2012 or even longer. Despite the lower tax rate and narrow coverage in the initial stage of the pilot project, it will not have a significant impact on the market, but its long-term impact cannot be ignored. The gradual implementation of the property tax reform pilot and related supporting systems will optimize the real estate taxation system and balance the tax burden on real estate holding and trading. It will help promote the reform of the public finance system and fundamentally contribute to the long-term healthy development of the real estate industry. .

On the other hand, the expansion of the scope of the property tax reform pilot may reduce the necessity of restricting purchases in related cities, which will provide conditions for the gradual withdrawal of the purchase restriction policy. If the economic downturn and the growth of real estate investment indicators slow down, trials through real estate tax and gradual withdrawal of purchase restrictions may become an option for the government.

Chen Guoqiang, deputy director of the China Real Estate Association, said in an interview with a reporter from the Economic Information Daily that the possibility of policies such as restriction of purchases, price limits, and limited loans extending to 2012 is significant, except that the means of purchase may face adjustments in the future. The means of regulation and control will, to a large extent, become the normal means of regulation and control. It is expected that in the taxation, land system, real estate finance and other aspects will further optimize existing policies to meet the regulatory needs of normalization.

Experts interviewed by reporters generally stated that while adhering to the regulation of real estate, they must speed up research and formulate housing system mechanisms and policy systems in line with the national conditions, persist in the allocation of housing resources into the market, strengthen and improve the control of the real estate market, and gradually form a total amount of basic Balanced, basically rational structure, housing prices and spending power basically adapt to the housing supply and demand pattern.

Hu Jinghui, Vice President of Weiye I Love My Family Group, stated that the structure of China's residential market is irrational and there is a shortage of low- and medium-price commercial housing. Relying on administrative measures to curb market demand is not a long-term mechanism. It will, to a large extent, lay a hidden danger for the retaliatory rally after the policy exit. Therefore, only by optimizing the supply structure of the real estate market and adjusting the ratio of supply and demand can the long-term real estate market be promoted. healthy growth.

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