The inventory price inflection point in the first half of 2011 has already appeared

In the first half of 2011, the temperature of the property market fluctuates along with the tightening of regulatory policies. At the beginning of the year, the "New Country Eight" turned out to push the "restriction of purchase" to the whole country, and raised the second house loan; then the three interest rate increases are more from the capital aspect of real estate regulation; "new housing price control target" system The establishment of the policy of directly intervening in housing prices, such as the establishment of a one-room-one-price policy, underscores the determination of the government's regulation of the property market. With the gradual fermentation of policy effects, the real estate market in the second half of the year may change from the current "strategic price cuts" to real price cuts, and the real "price wars" may take place.

Will the land first turn to flour in the buyer's market or will drag the bread?

The land market in major cities in the first half of the year was in a downturn. While the “land king” disappeared, the land sales revenue of local governments fell sharply year-on-year. Due to local financial needs, there is no doubt that the land market will usher in the upsurge of land supply in the second half of the year. However, whether the real estate developers as buyers will actively face the views of the industry are mixed.

Some analysts believe that due to the constraints of capital flow and the continued tightening of regulatory policies, it is expected that the “sold seller’s active buyer’s lukewarm” situation may appear in the land market in the second half of the year.

The seller’s active buyer’s report on Indifferent “Land Trading Information of 130 Urban Land Markets from January to June 2011” shows that from January to June, a total of 9511 land transactions were carried out in 130 cities across the country, and the transaction land area was 437.759 million square meters, an increase of 24% year-on-year; The transaction area of ​​residential land was 161,790,000 square meters, down 6% year-on-year. In terms of transaction price, from January to June, the average price of floor space for transactions in 130 cities nationwide was 1,061 yuan per square meter, which was a year-on-year drop of 20%; of which, residential land (including residential land and mixed-use land containing residential land) had a floor space The average price was 1451 yuan/square meter, down 13% year-on-year. The average monthly transaction floor price of residential land was lower than that of the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of 130 cities across the country, since January 2011, land transfer fees in 130 cities nationwide have reached 752.4 billion yuan, and the revenue from land transfer payments in the same period last year was 787.5 billion yuan, which was 5.5% lower than the same period last year. In 2010, the country’s land transfer fees totaled 2.9 trillion yuan. In the first half of this year, the land market continued to be cold, and land sales revenue dropped significantly.

According to the statistics of transaction data of the Beijing Land Consolidation Reserve Center, in the first half of the year, Beijing sold a total of 113 lands, and the total amount of land transfer fees was approximately 32.5 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 30.7 billion yuan from the same period last year, a decrease of 48.6%. Of the 113 parcels sold in the first half of the year, there were 20 parcels containing residential functions, and the total construction land area was 162.77 hectares. According to the plan for land supply in Beijing this year, there will be 1,220 hectares of commercial housing throughout the year, outside the 1,330 hectares of affordable housing. According to the 162.77 hectares of construction land area, the current completion rate is less than 15%. Compared with the same period of last year, the supply of ordinary commercial houses decreased significantly in the first half of the year. According to data from Beijing Centaline Property, the amount of land for ordinary commercial housing sales in the first half of this year hit a record low since 2008. The planned construction area in the first half of the year was 2.92 million square meters, compared to 7.19 million square meters in the first half of 2008 and the first half of last year. The 5.19 million square meters have dropped significantly.

With regard to the decline in floor prices, Beijing Zhongyuan Property Analysis stated that on the one hand, apart from a small number of plots in Fengtai, residential land is mainly located in the outskirts of the county. On the other hand, the developer’s financial pressure gradually emerged under the control of the developers. Enthusiasm has also become more cautious, and this has also led to multiple land bids or developers’ cautious quotations in the first half of the year.

Shanghai's situation is also not optimistic. In the first half of the year, Shanghai’s land sales revenue totaled approximately RMB 33.6 billion, equivalent to only 20% of last year. The total area of ​​land sold was 5.38 million square meters, and the total building area was 8.56 million square meters. The average price of floor-to-floor equivalents was nearly 6,000 yuan/square meter. Last year, Shanghai sold a total of 567 pieces of land and sold a total of 152.4 billion yuan in revenue. Industry insiders expect Shanghai's land sales revenue will hit a new high for many years, and this year is likely to decline for the first time this year.

Hangzhou, which once ranked first in the country’s housing prices, ended the first half of land sales revenue in the first half of the year. According to statistics from the Hangzhou Network, in the first half of 2011, Hangzhou City’s main downtown area together with Yuhang and Xiaoshan Districts successfully transferred 107 lands. The total transaction value was 27.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%. Among them, the turnover of the city’s 7.755 billion yuan in the main city was down by 68.97% compared with 24.996 billion yuan in the same period last year.

Land sales revenue sharply reduced According to the data released by the Ministry of Land and Resources website, in the first half of 2011, Hainan Province has sold 98 plots, covering an area of ​​5,849,500 square meters, and accumulatively accumulating approximately 4.952 billion yuan, the overall average price of all types of land. For 56.4459 yuan per mu. The transaction of land in Hainan in June, whether it is the total area of ​​the transaction, the total amount of transactions and the average transaction price, has increased exponentially from the previous month, a sharp increase of 3 times from May.

Land sales income has fallen sharply, followed by tight local finances and huge pressure from local government debt. According to the report of the National Audit Office, as of the end of 2010, the balance of provincial, municipal, and county-level local government debt totaled 10.72 trillion yuan, of which 6.71 trillion yuan was repaid by the government and 2.34 trillion yuan was guaranteed. The 1.67 trillion yuan that bears certain responsibility for salvation.

In addition to the repayment of government debt, support for the construction of affordable housing, and the payment of interest on land reserve loans, the proceeds from land sales have also increased by two functions in recent days - supporting education. Development and water conservancy construction, these two expenditures will take away 20% of land revenue. All this will make the government have to increase the intensity of pushing the land, according to recent land monitoring of the country found that the pace of pushing the land has been accelerated.

The pace of land supply in Shanghai has also begun to accelerate. Shanghai's land lease announcement No. 57 this year shows that the site of No. 55 Haimen Road in Hongkou District will be launched in early July. The starting price of the land is as high as 4.67 billion yuan, equivalent to 23,003 yuan per square meter of floor price. The industry believes that if it is successfully traded, it will refresh Hongkou District, the total price of "land king" record.

On June 29, the Bureau of Land and Resources of Jinan City launched 12 residential and commercial financial lands. The land parcels for sale were located in the 3rd District of Jinan City, Lixia and Licheng, 11 of which were located east of Erhuan East Road. In the jurisdiction of Licheng, 8 of them are residential land, with a total area of ​​45,2470.5 square meters; 4 are commercial and financial industry lands, with a total area of ​​174,446 square meters. According to the announcement of the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Land Resources and Housing Administration on June 30, five residential sites in the Nansha District will be listed for sale on August 8 with an area of ​​over 390,000 square meters and a total construction area of ​​815,000 square meters.

On June 30th, there were a total of 25 places in the Wuhan land market that were collectively listed for sale, with a total supply area of ​​about 2,000 mu. Of the 25 sites, 5 were land for urban village reconstruction, 3 were located in Hongshan District, 2 were in Hanyang District, and 4 were industrial land. Up to now, of the 25 parcels of land, 4 had been sold for news, and the remaining 21 plots, 1 flow, and 20 were sold successfully. The total turnover was 7.012 billion yuan.

However, whether or not the developers “buy” in the second half will accelerate the pace of land reserve, and the attitude of experts is not optimistic.

“In the second half of the year, the heat is certainly not on the agenda. The atmosphere of the entire real estate market is still very light. Under such circumstances, everyone cannot be too optimistic.” Xu Feng, director of the National Research Center of Midland Real Estate, said that from the demand point of view, a considerable part The relatively tight funding chain of developers has also largely constrained their large-scale acquisition of land. Chen Guoqiang, vice president of the China Real Estate Society, also stated: "Most companies have to face the pressure of funds after they are regulated."

Ding Jiangang, a commentator living in Hangzhou Network, described the current market with “unprecedented and depressed”. He believes that in the face of the current downturn in the land transfer market, all sectors are not optimistic about the Hangzhou land market in the second half of the year.

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